Welcome to this exclusive eBook edition of our weekly stock market analysis and outlook, crafted for investors steering through the multifaceted Indian equity terrain. As September 2025 concludes with fresh Pharma Tarriff announcements, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations on the horizon, last week's (September 22-28) trading sessions reflected a tug-of-war between domestic resilience and global headwinds, including lingering H1B visa fee hike effects on IT. Markets ended lower amid profit-booking and uncertainty, yet underlying GDP strength signals rebound potential.

Amid RBI's impending MPC and fresh U.S. policy shocks like Trump's 100% pharma tariffs on branded drugs (effective Oct 1), this eBook dissects last week's 0.95% Nifty dip—partly pharma-led—and charts recovery paths. With generics spared, Indian pharma's $9.8B U.S. exports face muted risks, yet the announcement wiped ₹5,000 Cr in market cap, underscoring trade vulnerabilities. Entering October 2025, Indian markets continue to balance sharp volatility from global policy actions (notably the Pharmaceutical Tarriffs, US H-1B visa fee hike, Fed rate cut) and domestic drivers (GST cuts, festive demand, resilient GDP prints).

This eBook harnesses the most recent data, expert insights, and projections to map your path for September 29-October 5, 2025. Spanning equity trends, IPO/NFO/ETF pipelines, commodity forecasts, money market liquidity, and event calendars, it's your toolkit for traders and long-term holders.

Why This eBook?

Timely Analysis: In-depth recap of September 22-28 and forward views for the upcoming week September 29 to October 5.
Data-Driven: Grounded in market data, economic releases, and analyst consensus.
Practical Tools: Tables for levels, picks, and events; outlooks across asset classes.

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Consult a certified advisor before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Executive Summary: A Week of Choppy Consolidation

September's close sets an October tone of guarded rebound, as Trump's pharma tariffs—aimed at patented imports but sparing generics—stir IT/pharma overlaps and export jitters (U.S. ~33% of India's pharma pie). Last week's consolidation masked strengths like 7.8% Q1 GDP growrth numbers, but pharma stocks (Sun Pharma -2.1%) dragged indices. RBI's rate hold could counter rupee pressures (₹88.25/USD), boosting pharma's domestic pivot amid 6.4% FY26 growth forecasts.

September 2025 ushers in October with measured optimism, as RBI's MPC (September 29-October 1) looms large, expected to hold rates steady at 5.50% amid controlled inflation (CPI 5.1%). Last week's declines, driven by IT sector woes from the H1B fee hike and global tariff jitters, masked broader strengths like robust forex reserves ($698.26B) and PMI highs. With FY26 GDP eyed at 6.4%, focus intensifies on liquidity, auto sales, and US PCE data for directional cues.

Outlook for Sept 28 - Oct 05: The upcoming week is critical, marking the end of Q2 FY25. Markets will be dominated by pharmaceutical tarriffs, the quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, the US PCE Inflation data (the Fed's preferred gauge), and the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting outcome on Oct 3rd. Expect continued volatility with a bias towards consolidation unless a clear catalyst emerges.

Chapter 1: Review of Last Week – September 22-28, 2025: Pressure Amid Consolidation

The week was marked by volatility, with early dips extending into losses as IT dragged benchmarks lower on H1B fallout, offset partially by auto and metals resilience. Trading opened flat on September 22, saw mid-week rebounds on global cues, but closed weak amid profit-booking.

Key Performance Highlights [ Share Market Weekly Outlook ]

Index	Weekly Change	Close (Sep 26)	Key Drivers
Nifty 50	-0.95%	24,654.70	IT, H1B impact, Pharma Tarriffs
Sensex	-0.92%	81,159.68	Auto gains, broader caution
Bank Nifty	-0.3%	54,700.00	Rate hold expectations
Nifty Midcap 100	-0.7%	57,800.00	Sector rotation

Daily Snapshot:
- Sep 22: Sensex -0.56% to 82,159.97; Nifty -0.49% to 25,202.35 – IT plunge on US visa news.
- Sep 23: Sensex +0.06% to 82,102.10; Nifty flat – Partial recovery.
- Sep 24: Sensex -0.47% to 81,715.63; Nifty down on consolidation.
- Sep 25: Sensex -0.68% to 81,159.68 (555 pts drop); Nifty -0.95% – Profit-booking intensifies.
- Sep 26: Weekend; subdued sentiment persists.

Major News and Impacts [ Share Market Weekly Outlook ]

Date	Event	Market Impact
Sep 22	China Central Bank Policy Rate	Boosted commodities
Sep 23	India Industrial Production	Enhanced equity sentiment
Sep 26	US PCE Inflation	Global risk moderation
Sep 25-28	UP Trade Show	Sectoral push (retail, infra)

Trump's Pharma Tariffs Shock: Announced Sep 25, the 100% levy on branded/patented drugs (Oct 1 start) triggered a 2% pharma sector plunge, erasing ₹5,000 Cr market cap (e.g., Dr. Reddy's -2.5%, Cipla -1.8%). Polity angle: India's MEA flagged 'humanitarian costs' in U.S. talks; stocks resilient long-term as generics (90% of exports) exempt, per GTRI—yet FPI outflows hit ₹7,945 Cr, amplifying the 0.95% Nifty slide. Sector Winners/Losers: Pharma (-2%) joins IT in red; autos (+1.2%) decoupled via sales data."
H1B Visa Fee Hike Evolution: The $100k annual fee (announced Sep 19) triggered a $10B IT market cap wipeout last week, with TCS/Infosys down 3-5%. Polity: India's MEA urged US rethink on humanitarian grounds; stocks like Wipro fell 4%, but analysts note 20-30% reduced H1B reliance cushions long-term hits. Equity impact: Nifty IT index -2.8%, dragging overall -0.95%; potential silver lining in domestic hiring (e.g., Infosys plans 10k local jobs).
Economic Boost: Q1 FY26 GDP 7.8%, forex reserves +$4.03B; auto sales up 5% MoM supported cyclicals.
GST Council’s rate cuts: Provided relief to cyclical stocks and consumers, supporting stocks in auto, real estate, and retail.
IT stocks remained weak: Negative bias lingered due to US visa policy shifts, but resilient rupee and local hiring softened margin impact.
IPO/NFO/ETF pipeline: Successful closures in midcap/SME IPOs (Ganesh Consumer, Aptus Pharma), plus strong interest in ETFs tied to momentum and flexicap themes.
Global Spillover: Post-Fed cut, US PCE preview and China data mixed; tariffs shaved sentiment.
Sector Winners/Losers: Autos (+1.2%) on sales; IT (-3.5%) on visas; Metals (-0.8%) amid China slowdown. Top gainers: Bajaj Auto (+4%); Losers: Infosys (-5%). FPI outflows: ₹7,945 Cr (Sep total).
Volatility Note: VIX at 14.5; rupee at ₹88.25/USD pressured liquidity. IMF/Fitch: >6% FY26 growth intact.

Impact: Technically, Nifty tested 24,650 support; hold above signals rebound, but H1B lingers as IT overhang.

Chapter 2: Global Outlook – Policy Stability and Data-Driven Shifts

Global markets eye cautious recovery in early October 2025, with Fed's PCE (Sep 26) and China's policy rate influencing flows. World GDP at 3.3%; European Markets 2.4% H2 slowdown from tariffs.

Key Themes:
- US Focus: PCE inflation key for Nov cut; H1B adds trade friction.
- Asia/EMs: China rate decision (Sep 22 aftermath); India's outperformance.
- Risks: Tariffs -0.5% growth drag; ECB 1.1% euro GDP.
- Data Releases: US Factory Orders, Japan Unemployment (Oct 1-5).

For India, RBI hold could stabilize rupee; positive PCE aids FPI (+₹5,000 Cr potential).

U.S. Policy Ripples: Trump's pharma tariffs (100% on branded, Oct 1) escalate trade frictions, potentially shaving 0.5% from global growth and pressuring EM exports—India's pharma (U.S.-bound $9.8B FY25) sees limited generic hit but branded exposure (e.g., biosimilars) risks margins. Fed's PCE (Sep 26) softens at 2.5%, aiding EMs; ECB's 1.1% euro GDP lags. For India, tariffs amplify H1B woes, but China's stimulus cushions commodities.

Chapter 3: Indian Equity Outlook – Steady Amid RBI Lens

H2 2025 sees Nifty targeting 26,000 by Dec, with 8-10% earnings growth. 70% analysts bullish post-RBI; PE 22x high, but reforms buoy. Money Market: Repo hold at 5.50%; liquidity ample (M2 ₹67.73T), liquid funds yielding 7-9%.

Equity Momentum: Consolidation likely; support 24,650. Outperformers: Autos, financials; underperformers: IT (H1B drag).
IPO Market: Robust ₹6,000+ Cr; SME focus on consumer/engineering.
ETF/MF: Passive surge; NFOs in momentum/index themes for diversification.

Index	Support	Resistance	Bias
Nifty 50	24,650–24,800	25,000–25,300	Sideways to Bullish
Sensex	81,000–81,200	81,800–82,200	Neutral to Bullish
Bank Nifty	54,400–54,600	54,900–55,200	Range-bound

Broader: Cyclicals lead; defensives hedge volatility.

Pharma Sector Under Scrutiny: Trump's tariffs exempt generics (India's 90% U.S. edge), muting impacts on Sun Pharma/Cipla (down 1-2% last week), but branded/biosimilar plays face 100% duties—analysts cut FY26 EPS 2-3% for exposed firms. Buys: Domestic-focused Lupin (tgt ₹2,000); Sells: Export-heavy Dr. Reddy's short-term. Overall: Nifty PE 22x; pharma adds caution to 70% bullish poll.

Sectoral Trends

Sector	Bias	Key Risks	Preferred Stocks (Illustrative)
IT/Export	Negative	US visa, margin squeeze	TCS, Infosys, HCL, Bajaj Finserv (hedge)
Banking/Pvt	Neutral+	FPI flows, rate cycle	ICICI Bank, SBI, HDFC Bank
Autos	Bullish	Input costs, inventory	Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto
Real Estate	Bullish	GST, funding constraints	DLF, Prestige, Oberoi Realty
FMCG/Pharma	Negative	100% Tariff Impact and possibility of Generic inclusion. Input cost inflation	Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s
Metals/Oil	Stable	OPEC moves, global demand	JSW Steel, Tata Steel, ONGC

Chapter 4: Weekly Outlook – September 29-October 5, 2025: RBI-Centric Recovery

Bullish tilt with Nifty +0.8-1.2% to 25,000 if RBI dovish hints emerge. Support 24,650; break below to 24,500. Triggers: MPC outcome (Oct 1), auto sales (Oct 1). No holidays; full sessions.

Equity Outlook: Gains in banks/autos depending on RBI MPC outcome; IT recovery if H1B eased. Equity Momentum w.r.t. Pharma Tariffs: Nifty eyes 25,000 recovery (+0.8-1.2%) if RBI hints liquidity ease offsets tariff drags—pharma (Nifty Pharma index -1.5% potential) may lag, but generics resilience caps downside.
- Pharma-Bull Case: U.S. trade talks soften tariffs → pharma, rebound to 25,300;
- Pharma- Bear Case: Escalation → 24,500 test, with pharma, dragging 0.5% off Nifty.
IPO/ETF/MF: Active NFOs; subscribe to momentum ETFs for Oct rally.
Commodity: Gold up on hedges; crude stable.
Money Market: Liquidity steady; yields 3.35% overnight.
Trade Setup:
- Bull Case: RBI hold + positive PCE → 25,300.
- Bear Case: Hawkish RBI + outflows → 24,500 test.
- Volatility: VIX 13-15; quality focus.

Key Events and Risk Factors

Date	Event	Estimated Impact
Sep 29	RBI Monetary Policy Commentary	Moderate (rates, banks)
Sep 30	India Quarterly GST Data Release	High (realty, auto)
Oct 1	US/China Trade Updates	Medium-high (exports, IT)
Oct 3	Major IT/Pharma Earnings Previews	Sector direction
Oct 5	World Teachers’ Day	Low (education stocks)

Daily Outlook for Monday, September 29, 2025

Open flat; Nifty support 24,800; resistance 25,000. Market Awaits RBI's MPC start with focus on following events and statistics:

India’s Trade Ministry outcomes from Washington visit – possible moderation in US policy tone.
FPI flows, currency, company-specific results (especially IT, financials).
GST Council and festive demand trends.
Any surprises in global commodity or tariff moves.

Chapter 5: Commodity & Money Market Outlook – Hedges and Stability

Commodities:

Commodities mixed; gold bullish amid uncertainty, crude soft on supply. Festive demand to support gold prices. Rupee stability adds risk hedging appeal to bullion.

Commodity Ties to Pharma: Gold (₹1,09,000-1,10,000) hedges tariff uncertainty, up 1% on safe-haven flows; crude ($72-76/bbl) stable despite supply gluts. Money Market: RBI hold at 5.50% aids pharma capex funding (yields 3.35% overnight); liquid funds (7-9%) ideal for parking amid export volatility. Pharma's API imports (China-heavy) face indirect crude ripple if tariffs broaden.

Commodity	Current Price	Weekly Forecast	Key Factor
Gold (MCX)	₹1,09,356/10g	₹1,09,000-1,10,000	RBI cues, $3,800/oz tgt
Crude (Brent)	$74/bbl	$72-76	OPEC, China demand
Silver	₹1,05,000	₹1,04,500-1,06,000	Industrial uptick

Money Market:

Repo 5.50% hold expected; overnight rates 3.35% in corridor. Liquidity ample post-MPC; liquid funds 7-9% yields for parking.

Rupee: ₹88.00–88.90/USD; expected to remain range-bound amid FPI flows and RBI interventions.
Bond Yields: Steady, RBI policy watch. Short-term rates may tick up if inflation surprises.
FPI Flows: Outflows aggrevated last week with aggressive sell-offs in Cash market segment, remain a risk if global shocks persist. Defensive banking, select PSU bonds offer safe haven characteristics.

Chapter 6: Upcoming IPOs, NFOs, and ETFs – Vibrant Pipeline

MF/ETF Pharma Exposure: NFOs like Invesco India Consumption (Oct 3-17) offer pharma tilts via healthcare themes—allocate 10% for tariff-resilient generics. ETF surge in passive (e.g., Kotak Momentum ongoing) diversifies beyond pharma dips; IPOs avoid branded-heavy issues amid Oct 1 tariff kick-in. Pipeline: ₹6,500 Cr; pharma-adjacent consumer NFOs attract inflows.

₹6,500+ Cr offerings; consumer/tech themes. IPO Market: SME momentum; mainboard steady. ETF/MF: Passive/index NFOs for low-cost growth.

Ongoing IPOs (Sep 29-Oct 5)

Company	Type	Open Date	Close Date	Size (₹ Cr)
DSM Fresh Foods	SME	Sep 26	Sep 30	59.65 Cr
Pace Digitek Ltd	Mainboard	Sep 26	Sep 30	819.15 Cr
Jinkushal Industries Ltd	Mainboard	Sep 25	Sep 29	116.15 Cr
Trualt Bioenergy	Mainboard	Sep 25	Sep 29	839.28 Cr

Upcoming NFOs

Fund Name	Category	Open Date	Close Date	Min (₹)
Groww Nifty Capital Markets ETF	ETF	Ongoing (Sep 26)	Oct 10	500
Kotak Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF	ETF	Ongoing (Sep 22)	Oct 6	TBD
DSP Nifty500 Flexicap Quality 30 ETF	ETF	Ongoing (Sep 24)	Oct 5	TBD
Edelweiss Nifty 1D Rate Liquid ETF	Liquid ETF	Sep 30	Oct 3	TBD
Invesco India Consumption Fund	Equity	Oct 3	Oct 17	TBD

Upcoming ETFs

ETF Name	Category	Open Date	Close Date
Zerodha Nifty 50 Index Fund	Index	Ongoing	Oct 10
Tata Nifty Next 50 Index Fund	Index	Ongoing	Sep 26 (extended)

MF Outlook: Diversified/index funds attract inflows; allocate 15-25% for balance.

Chapter 7: Important Events – Calendars and Impacts

Global & India Economic Calendar (Sep 29-Oct 5)

Date	Event	Impact on Markets
Oct 1	Pharma Tariffs take Effect	High: Branded pharma duties start—watch export data; generics buffer

Sep 29-Oct 1	RBI MPC Meeting	High (Rates, liquidity)
Oct 1	Auto Sales Data; Japan Unemployment	Medium (Cyclicals, Asia)
Oct 1	US Factory/Durable Goods Orders	High (Global cues)
Oct 3	India Industrial Production	Medium: Pharma output signals tariff adaptation.
Oct 5	World Teachers' Day	Low

Other: Uttar Pradesh Trade Show (Sep 25-28 aftermath); GST watch. RBI hold to stabilize; PCE for Fed path. [ Share Market Weekly Outlook ]

Chapter 8: Strategy and Takeaways

Equity: Buy dips in autos/banks; sideline IT till H1B clarity.
IPO/ETF/MF: Subscribe to momentum ETFs; SME IPOs for growth.
Commodity: Gold hedge (10% allocation); crude watch for energy.
Money Market: Park in liquid funds for 7-9% yields amid RBI stability.
Global Triggers: Dovish RBI + positive data → upside; hedge outflows.
Risk Management: 55% equities, 20% commodities, 15% MF/ETFs, 10% money market.
Pharma-Specific Plays: Rotate to generic-heavy Sun Pharma (buy on dips, tgt ₹1,800) over branded-exposed peers; hedge 5-10% in gold amid tariff volatility. Overall: Sideline pharma till U.S. clarity; favor autos (Maruti) for 55% equity allocation."

Sample Stock Picks

Theme	Sample Names	Rationale
Autos	Maruti Suzuki	Sales rebound
Financials	ICICI Bank	Credit growth post-RBI
Metals	JSW Steel	China stimulus spillover

Conclusion: Position for RBI Clarity

Investor Strategy:
- Focus on dips in autos, banks, and consumer stocks for festive upside.
- Avoid overweight positions in IT/export stocks until clarity on the H-1B fallout and global cues.
- Use ETF/NFOs as diversifiers, especially momentum and quality focus.
- Maintain stop-loss discipline at Nifty 25,400 (major support) and consider short-term protection if volatility spikes.
- Monitor GST impact—stocks set to benefit include consumer durables, retail, real estate.
- Watch FPI flows and currency for signs of risk-on/risk-off rotation.
- Allocation: Use ongoing/closing IPOs and NFOs for exposure in consumer, pharma, financial themes. Target 10–20% of portfolio for diversification via ETFs and new thematic funds.
- Cautious on SME IPOs – recommend due diligence due to high volatility and uncertain liquidity.

September 29-October 5 pivots on RBI stability countering Trump's pharma tariffs—generics' exemption limits pain, but branded risks linger. Week holds recovery promise with RBI's steady hand and data tailwinds, countering last week's pressures. India's 6.4% FY26 growth anchors; Diversify into resilient MFs/ETFs, hedge commodities.

The first week of October 2025 offers recovery potential with risks tied to sector rotation, currency and FPI trends, and global policy headlines. A selective, disciplined approach—leveraging festive themes, hedged exposure in export-linked stocks, and active diversification via new funds—remains essential. Investors should remain agile, monitoring key support/resistance levels, event calendars, and risk factors outlined above.

Disclaimer: This eBook is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.

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Share Market Weekly Outlook – September 29-October 5, 2025: Anticipating RBI Moves and Recovery

Foreword