Market Outlook: 6 Oct – 12 Oct 2025
- Pushpendra Chaturvedi
- Oct 6
- 7 min read
Welcome to this week's market outlook on InvestAndEarn.in. As we step into October 6-12, 2025, the Indian markets are poised for a mix of optimism and caution amid global uncertainties and domestic earnings season. This edition covers the key highlights from the previous week (September 29 - October 5, 2025) and our forward-looking analysis for the week ahead.
Indian financial markets are entering the second week of October riding the momentum from a sharp rebound after the RBI’s latest monetary policy. Below are sector-wise highlights and forecasts.
1. Previous Week’s Outcomes & Market Recap
The week ending 3 October saw a recovery after earlier weakness. Nifty made modest gains, aided by bargain buying and stable global cues. The Economic Times+3Moneycontrol+3India Infoline+3
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers in September, with outflows mounting. The Times of India+1
On the positive side, HSBC upgraded Indian equities to “overweight” citing relatively attractive valuations. Reuters
Key levels: Nifty sustained above its 100-day EMA, signaling some technical firmness, though upside resistance near ~ 25,000 is expected to test strength. Moneycontrol+1
Sectorally, cyclical and recovery plays got some support, while high-beta segments remained under pressure amid macro uncertainty.
Overall, the market showed tentative stabilization, though the underlying currents remain fragile given global headwinds. The week was marked by volatility, driven by global trade tensions, US policy concerns on H-1B visas, and anticipation around the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The Nifty 50 ended its three-week winning streak, slipping 2.6% amid pressures from these factors. On September 29, the Sensex fell for the seventh straight session, shedding 61 points to close lower, while intraday swings kept traders on edge. Sector-wise, the top 10 sectors delivered -1.92% returns, with the bottom 10 faring worse at -4.96%, reflecting broad-based weakness.
However, the holiday-shortened week saw a partial rebound, with the Sensex rising 780.71 points (0.97%) and Nifty gaining 239.55 points (0.97%) by the close on October 4, buoyed by positive macroeconomic cues. Key drags included IT and pharma, while metals and PSUs showed resilience. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious, with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sellers amid global headwinds.
Equities:
Sensex and Nifty snapped an eight-day losing streak, ending last week up about 0.9% and 1% respectively.
Banking stocks led gains as the RBI held the repo rate at 5.5% and forecasted GDP growth to 6.8% for FY 2025-26.
Tata Motors, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, and Sun Pharma were notable winners.
Commodities:
Gold and silver continued a historic bull run, surging over 47% and 52% year-to-date.
Prices corrected slightly on profit booking, but international and MCX rates remain near all-time highs.
Oil prices stayed range-bound despite global uncertainty.
Money Market:
Stable monetary conditions prevailed as RBI’s stance remained neutral and supportive of growth, with government bonds and short-term rates steady.
Equity Market Outlook [Market Outlook: 6 Oct – 12 Oct 2025]
Expect continued upward momentum in the equity markets, fueled by Q2 earnings from heavyweights like TCS and a slew of IPOs. The Nifty is projected to target 25,400, with potential for a decisive breakout above 25,600, while the Sensex eyes new highs near record levels. High-volatility days on October 6, 7, and 9 could see sharp movements, with key support at 24,700 and resistance at 25,200 for Nifty. Sectors like metals, PSUs, and consumption are likely to lead gains, supported by domestic growth prospects. However, global cues such as US funding bills and Fed signals may introduce swings—traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases closely. Overall tone: Cautiously optimistic, with a bullish bias if earnings surprise positively.
After last week's recovery, Nifty (ended near 24,836) eyes key support at 24,805 and resistance at 25,001/25,082.
Volatility is expected on October 6, 7, and 9 due to earnings releases and US economic triggers; short-term traders should monitor momentum closely.
With stable global cues, constructive sentiment may prevail as long as Nifty holds above crucial supports.
3. IPO, NFO and ETF Launches
The primary markets come into sharp focus this week. The Tata Capital IPO opens on 6 October (closes 8 Oct), with a price band of ₹310–₹326 and total issue size of ~₹15,511 crore (fresh + OFS) IPO Central+5The Economic Times+5Reuters+5
LG Electronics India IPO is planned between 7–9 October with price band ₹1,080–₹1,140, via OFS. Angel One+2Teji mandi+2
WeWork India Management IPO (OFS) is also in the pipeline, with subscription window overlapping early October. The Economic Times+2Angel One+2
These three together are expected to raise a large sum, making October perhaps one of the busiest IPO months. Bloomberg+5Reuters+5ifre.com+5
Several NFOs are ongoing, notably:
ICICI Pru Conglomerate Fund: Open October 3-17; sectoral/thematic equity focus.
Invesco India Consumption Fund: Open October 3-17; equity scheme targeting consumption growth.
ETFs:
DSP Nifty500 Flexicap Quality 30 ETF closes its NFO on October 6—India's first flexicap ETF, ideal for diversified quality exposure. Also, Kotak Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF closes October 6.
Motilal Oswal Consumption Fund, ICICI Prudential Conglomerate Fund, Invesco India Consumption Fund close mid-Oct.
Kotak Gold Silver Passive FoF launches October 6, closes October 20.
IPO activity is steady, mostly focused on fund offerings and passive products—investors can explore diversified options until mid-October.
As of now, We did not find a confirmed new NFO (mutual fund) or ETF launch announcement for the week. But in general, fund houses may align new offerings to the IPO momentum or equities recovery.
Watch for small-cap / thematic ETFs (e.g. ESG, alternate energy) to be floated if market sentiment improves.
Key Risks / Considerations
Oversupply risk: multiple large IPOs in short span could saturate demand.
Grey Market Premium (GMP) divergence: early signals for Tata and LG show mixed GMP trends, implying caution. Bloomberg+4The Economic Times+4Reuters+4
Retail vs institutional appetite will decide who captures the listing gains.
4. Commodity Market Outlook
Gold & Silver: Given global volatility, safe-haven demand may keep bullion in focus. Rising interest in gold as an inflation hedge remains plausible.
Gold likely to test ₹1,22,000 per 10g by Diwali (Oct 21) if bullish drivers persist.
Silver could reach ₹1,50,000-₹1,58,000/kg amid festive demand and green energy sector support.
Oil remains subdued; gold and silver continue acting as barometers for global economic uncertainty.
Crude Oil / Energy: Oil prices remain a key variable. Any supply disruptions or geopolitical shocks could push oil higher, feeding into inflation and pressuring equity valuations.
Agricultural Commodities & Base Metals: Expect mixed performance. Seasonal patterns, monsoon residuals, and global demand (especially China) will guide direction.
On MCX, volume and open interest trends will be crucial—look for how participants behave near support/resistance zones.
If global cues turn favorable (e.g. easing supply constraints, softer dollar), commodities could rally further.
Commodities remain in a "super bull run," with gold up 47% and silver 52% YTD, driven by festive demand ahead of Diwali 2025. Gold prices may stay volatile next week, influenced by US government funding developments and Fed signals—expect consolidation around ₹1,16,000-₹1,18,000 per 10g, with upside potential to ₹1,20,000 on positive cues. Silver could mirror this, targeting ₹90,000/kg.
Oil faces headwinds, with forecasts pointing to weakness in October due to global surpluses (2 million bpd in 2025). Brent may hover at $70-75/barrel. Base metals like copper could surge on industrial demand, while agri-commodities benefit from a normal monsoon outlook. Strategy: Buy dips in precious metals; stay sidelined on energy
5. Money Market / Fixed Income Outlook
The RBI's October MPC decision anchors the money market, with the repo rate held steady at 5.50% under a neutral stance. Inflation eased to an 8-year low of 2.6%, enabling an upward revision in FY26 GDP growth to 6.8%. This supportive environment favors fixed-income investors, with yields on 10-year G-Secs likely stable at 6.8-7.0%.
Liquidity remains ample post-MPC, but watch for inflows from IPOs impacting short-term rates. Corporate bond issuances could pick up, offering 7-8% yields in AA+ papers. Outlook: Benign inflation and steady rates signal a soft landing—ideal for duration extension in debt funds.
Liquidity: The system’s liquidity (via RBI operations) will be key; any surprise operations (OMO, CRR changes) may cause short rate volatility.
Yields on government securities: The 1–5 year segment may see mild upward movements if inflation surprises; long end (10Y+) will track global yields, U.S. treasury trends, and foreign demand for Indian bonds.
Expect modest spread compression in corporates if credit sentiment improves, but risk premia will remain high until macro clarity emerges.
CPs, CDs (corporate paper, certificates of deposit) yields may remain elevated, giving short-duration debt funds an edge.
RBI’s neutral policy stance, unchanged repo rate, and upgraded GDP outlook enhance confidence in rupee-denominated assets and government securities.
Strong consumption, investment, and fiscal support bode well for liquidity, credit growth, and bond market stability.
6. Outlook for the Week (6–12 Oct)
Segment | Likely Trend / Key Themes |
Equities | Volatility is likely. A range-bound movement is expected unless one side (positive global cues or domestic triggers) gives breakout. Watch 24,500–25,000 band for Nifty. |
IPOs / Primary Markets | Heavy subscription interest expected in Tata Capital. Monitor GMPs & subscription trends. Strong listing gains possible if demand holds. |
Commodities | Bullion may outperform if risk aversion sets in. Crude to be a driver of inflation & market sentiment. |
Money Market / Rates | Stability with occasional volatility. Yields may inch up if inflation surprises or global rates rise. |
Key Watch Items That Could Move Markets Next Week
Global inflation / U.S. Fed commentary
India CPI / WPI data releases
Q2 corporate earnings surprises
Any RBI commentary or monetary policy surprises
Foreign flows (FII / FPI)
IPO subscription trends & allotment response
In summary, the coming week may offer opportunity, but also risk. Traders and investors should maintain disciplined strategies, keep risk in check, and use confirmed breakout signals rather than chasing early momentum.
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